The Greater Toronto Area has always set the tone for how Canadians talk about real estate, and in February 2026 the region is telling a story of steady footing. After a soft stretch, transaction activity has firmed, inventory is working through the system, and prices have stabilized rather than lurched in either direction. This month we take a closer look at the GTA housing market and the data points that matter most as the region moves toward its spring selling season.
Bank of Canada (policy rate) and Statistics Canada (inflation).
Condo inventory is still the swing factor
The clearest feature of the GTA market remains elevated condo supply, particularly downtown and along transit corridors where investor-owned units concentrate. That inventory has kept condo price growth muted even as demand recovers, and it continues to offer entry-level buyers more choice than they have had in years. Completions from projects launched during the boom are still arriving, so the absorption of this inventory will be a defining theme through 2026. The detached segment, by contrast, remains tighter and more resilient on price.
Bank of Canada policy rate, 2015–2024
Year-end overnight target rate. Source: Bank of Canada.
Demand returns on the back of stable rates
The recovery in buyer activity tracks closely with the stability in borrowing costs. With mortgage rates settled below their peak and holding steady, more households have re-entered the market with realistic budgets. Showing activity and mortgage pre-approval volumes picked up through the winter, a leading indicator that typically precedes a firmer spring. Buyers are more disciplined than in past cycles, negotiating on price and conditions rather than waiving them, which is a healthy sign of a normalizing market.
The 905 versus the 416
Within the region, the divergence between the city core and the surrounding 905 municipalities is worth watching. The suburban and exurban markets that surged during the remote-work era have cooled and normalized, offering value to buyers priced out of the core. Meanwhile the 416 is supported by its enduring supply constraints on ground-oriented housing. Analysts tracking these sub-markets increasingly work at the neighbourhood and postal-code level, where the averages that make headlines dissolve into far more useful detail.
Supply and the building pipeline
The GTA sits at the centre of Canada's supply debate. Municipal approval timelines, development charges and financing costs continue to shape what actually gets built, and the pipeline of new starts has been uneven. Building-permit data offers an early read on where construction is headed, and it currently points to caution among developers even as policymakers push for more density near transit. Bridging the gap between ambition and completions remains the region's central structural challenge.
Inflation (CPI), 2015–2025
Annual average consumer price inflation. Source: Statistics Canada.
Data-driven decisions in a normalizing market
In a market defined by nuance rather than momentum, granular data has become indispensable. Agents, investors and lenders lean on automated valuation and real-time property intelligence to price accurately and spot opportunity. The Neighbourly.io API gives teams working across the GTA structured access to Canadian property data, so their models and dashboards reflect current conditions rather than last quarter's assumptions.
Looking toward spring
February is typically a prelude, and this year the prelude is constructive. If rates hold and new listings arrive in an orderly fashion, the GTA is positioned for a balanced, healthy spring rather than a frenzied one. The condo overhang will keep a lid on runaway price growth, which is arguably good news for affordability. We will continue tracking inventory, absorption and permit activity across the region and report on how the spring market takes shape.
This analysis is built on Neighbourly.io — the real estate data API for Canada. Standardized addresses, boundaries, demographics, permits and market signals through a single interface.
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