If January was about waiting, February brought the first faint signs of movement. Bond yields have drifted lower over recent weeks as markets price in rate cuts later this year, and a handful of lenders have trimmed fixed mortgage rates in response. None of this amounts to a turning point yet, but it is the kind of early thaw that tends to precede a busier spring. Showings are ticking up, and the tone of conversations among agents and buyers has grown noticeably less defensive than it was in the depths of last autumn.
Bank of Canada (policy rate) and Statistics Canada (inflation).
Fixed rates lead the way down
Because fixed mortgage rates track government bond yields rather than the overnight rate directly, they can move ahead of the Bank of Canada. That is exactly what is happening now. The modest retreat in five-year fixed offerings does not transform affordability, but it does change psychology. Buyers who assumed rates could only climb are recalibrating, and the mere prospect of cheaper financing later in 2024 is enough to pull some demand forward into the spring window.
Bank of Canada policy rate, 2024
Overnight target rate through 2024's cutting cycle. Source: Bank of Canada.
Spring inventory begins to build
Historically, listings climb through late winter as sellers prepare for the spring market, and 2024 is following that rhythm, if cautiously. New supply is arriving, but many sellers remain price-sensitive and reluctant to test a still-uncertain market aggressively. The healthier flow of listings is welcome in markets that spent much of last year starved of choice, and it should give returning buyers more room to negotiate than they enjoyed at the frantic peaks of the pandemic era.
Alberta keeps outrunning the coasts
The regional gap that opened last year is widening. Calgary and Edmonton continue to post firm demand, supported by in-migration, stronger relative affordability, and an economy less exposed to the highest price tiers. Detached homes in these markets are still moving briskly. On the coasts, the pattern inverts at the top end: luxury and high-price segments in Vancouver and the GTA remain the slowest-clearing part of the market, weighed down by carrying costs that bite hardest where prices are highest.
Reading demand block by block
National and even city-level averages continue to hide as much as they reveal. Within a single municipality, entry-level condos may be attracting multiple offers while executive detached listings sit for months. Granular data that ties transactions to standardized boundaries and neighbourhood demographics is the only reliable way to see this texture. The teams positioning best for the spring are those measuring absorption at the neighbourhood level rather than reacting to a single provincial headline.
Inflation (CPI), 2015–2024
Annual average consumer price inflation. Source: Statistics Canada.
Condos versus detached
The spread between segments is one of the defining features of this market. Investor-heavy condo inventory, particularly in Toronto, faces its own pressures as rising costs squeeze the economics of rental holdings. Detached homes, meanwhile, benefit from constrained supply and the durable preference for space. Anyone modelling 2024 needs to treat these as distinct markets with distinct drivers rather than folding them into one price index.
Verified · Dec 15, 2024
New federal rules raised the insured-mortgage price cap to $1.5 million and extended 30-year amortizations to first-time buyers and buyers of newly built homes.
The takeaway
February 2024 is best read as a market clearing its throat before spring. The fundamentals remain rate-constrained, but the direction of travel on financing costs has changed, and behaviour is beginning to follow. We expect the spring season to test just how much sidelined demand is ready to return at the first hint of relief. Watch fixed rates and neighbourhood-level absorption; they will signal the recovery well before the national average does.
This analysis is built on Neighbourly.io — the real estate data API for Canada. Standardized addresses, boundaries, demographics, permits and market signals through a single interface.
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